Just started reading ‘Why Nations Fail’ by Acemoglu&Robinson, and oh how true the premise rings. The premise? Good governance, creates a just society which leads to good economics.
How does good governance come about? Not by people in power! Takes some kind of civil action.
Now Ukraine has had the Orange Revolution and the Maidan, resulting in a return to the 2004 constitution, that limits Presidential power and places more with the Rada (parliament). Russia had Yeltsin, and then the KGB (FSB) took over. Chance of any other revolution in Russia is nil. So economically, Russia will progress no further. And once the gas and oil sales decline, so will the Russian economy.
So if Crimea is going to vote, it should vote to stay in Ukraiina. There is more chance of good governance and therefore long-term economic growth.
PS: The vote should be interesting. Unlike Canada, the Ukrainian Constitution requires the whole country to vote before a portion leaves. Add to that, the practical aspect of getting a voter’s list and postal votes. Media fairness. Guys with guns everywhere. Nothing like a fair vote, and this is nothing like a fair vote.