So when will the Covid lockdown end?
Next year, 2022.

With another year or three of knock-on effects.

As heard on ‘White Coat, Black Art‘, a CBC radio show.

This featured an interview with Harvard prof and author, Nicholas Christakis, who takes a historical perspective.
Plagues of all types have been with us, since time immemorial.
Listed even in the Bible.
And happening in modern times.
Christakis reminded us that in 2003, Canada had SARS, a plague that was ten times deadlier than Covid.
History shows that it takes some two years for a plague to stop being an issue.
Then Christakis stated that we shall spend another 3yrs coming to terms with the economic impact. Eg: the travel industry has been devastated. As has any job, unless you can work remotely, or have been designated an essential service.

As for impact, Christakis ran through the numbers from a sociological perspective. Assume that 10 people are affected directly by a covid death (eg: your uncle died), and 100 vaguely (eg: your uncle’s boss died). In the USA Christakis estimates that half to one million people will die from Covid. Take the upper number, and that means Covid will impact 100million people. Or, as Christakis explained, with a population of 328million, in the USA, two-thirds of the population will not be touched by the disease.
Though most have been impacted by the economic effects.

Christakis ended with the hope that after covid, there will be a “lessons learned” exercise. All sorts of good reasons to make sure‎ humanity is better prepared for the next plague.
All together now “If it’s logical and sensible, it will never happen!”
Or, lets repeat our “Lessons not learned”.

To summarise, expect the lockdown to continue for another year, and then economic upheaval for another 3yrs.
‎And we will be just as unprepared for the next one.



ps: want to hear something more cheerful? Listen to this debate on whether every Canadian should be taught to get out on the ice and skate……..